PC Shipments Plunge 20% as Memory Prices Squeeze the Market

Buying a new PC got noticeably rarer in the third quarter of 2026. Two separate research firms, Omdia and IDC, both reported that PC shipments fell by roughly 20 percent year over year, numbers that mark the steepest quarterly drop the industry has seen since the post-pandemic correction of early 2023. The culprit isn’t a lack of interest in new computers, it’s the price of the memory chips that go inside them.

The numbers, side by side

Omdia pegged the decline at 21.2 percent year over year, with global shipments of laptops, desktops, and workstations falling to 58.1 million units. Within that total, desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) dropped 23.5 percent to 11.7 million units, while laptops (including laptop workstations) fell 20.6 percent to 46.4 million.

IDC’s figures tell a similar story: 62.7 million PCs shipped in Q3 2026, down 20.1 percent from the 78.5 million units shipped in the same quarter last year. IDC also noted that shipments fell 9.1 percent compared to the previous quarter, which is unusual since the third quarter typically outperforms the second as vendors restock for the back-to-school and holiday shopping season. IDC called the 20.1 percent drop the largest third-quarter decline it has ever recorded.

Why the market stalled so suddenly

According to IDC, part of the blame falls on timing. Many PC vendors and retail channels had already stocked up on inventory earlier in the year in anticipation of memory price hikes, which left little room for fresh demand once Q3 arrived. Jitesh Ubrani, IDC’s research director for consumer devices, said that sales channels are now cautious about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are already suppressing demand.

Omdia’s explanation points to the same root cause from a different angle. Research director Ishan Dutt said the cost increases that started upstream, in component manufacturing, have now fully worked their way into retail prices, and buyers are responding by holding off purchases. On the supply side, vendors and their manufacturing partners began scaling back production in the third quarter while still working through elevated inventory.

The underlying driver is memory. Surging demand for HBM and server DRAM used in AI data centers has squeezed the manufacturing capacity available for consumer parts, a dynamic we’ve covered in our report on the RAM shortage that executives warn could stretch through 2028. Omdia’s Ben Yeh said memory and storage now make up nearly 40 percent of the bill of materials for a typical PC, compared to a usual 15 percent, and that PC prices overall have increased more than fourfold as a result. Vendors have raised prices multiple times to try to absorb the hit, but according to Yeh those increases still haven’t fully offset the added cost.

No quick relief in sight

IDC expects PC prices to come down only modestly and briefly, not anywhere close to where they stood a year ago. Omdia is even more pessimistic about the near term, projecting shipments will fall another 24 percent year over year next quarter before the decline moderates to around 7 percent for all of 2027. Omdia also flagged that shortages aren’t limited to memory, pointing to tighter supply of processors, graphics cards, and other integrated circuit components that are making inventory planning harder for vendors across the board.

That outlook lines up with warnings from the chipmakers themselves. Executives from Micron and Samsung recently indicated that component shortages could persist through 2028, which would mean PC buyers are looking at elevated prices for the next several years rather than a brief rough patch.

What it means if you’re shopping for a PC

If you’ve noticed laptops, desktops, or DDR5 memory kits costing more than they did last year, this data confirms it isn’t your imagination. Our breakdown of the rising costs of DDR5 RAM covers the same pricing pressure from the component side. Channel partners worried about sitting on expensive inventory may roll out short-term promotions, so deal-hunters shouldn’t assume prices only move in one direction. But both analyst firms agree that a return to last year’s pricing isn’t on the table anytime soon. If your current machine is still serviceable, there’s a reasonable case for waiting out this cycle rather than buying at the peak of a price spike. If you do need to buy now, comparing configurations carefully and watching for promotional windows will matter more than usual.

The bottom line

A 20 percent drop in PC shipments is a significant signal, not a blip, and both Omdia and IDC see further weakness ahead rather than a quick rebound. The root cause, memory chips being diverted to AI infrastructure, isn’t going away soon, and that means PC prices are likely to stay elevated well into 2027 and possibly beyond. For everyday buyers, the practical takeaway is simple: expect to pay more for new hardware for the foreseeable future, and treat any discount you find as a reason to act rather than wait for a bigger price drop.

Source: Ars Technica